Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered the introduction of a “special mode” of combat, setting Russia’s nuclear forces to an elevated level of alert in the war in Ukraine.
Right now, a clear path to nuclear de-escalation is imperative: nuclear armed states must reduce the readiness of their nuclear forces, and must refrain from tit-for-tat threats to use weapons of mass destruction.
An immediate ceasefire, and retreat of Russian forces from Ukraine, must be negotiated. Nuclear weapons must be abolished; all nuclear armed nations, and their supporters such as Australia, must join the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.
While the conflict in Ukraine continues, civilians must be protected as is required by international law.
Politically, we know that Putin’s decision to increase the threat of nuclear war is a dangerous escalation: a ‘gun to the head’ of Ukrainian peace negotiations, and a piece of brinkmanship that may have catastrophic consequences for humanity.
Militarily, assessments of this announcement are still being made. Many Russian and US nuclear weapons were already known to be in a permanent state of high alert.
Russia is estimated to have a stockpile of at least 4000 nuclear warheads available for use by long-range strategic launchers and shorter-range ‘tactical’ nuclear forces. The Federation of American Scientists estimates that approximately 1588 strategic warheads are permanently deployed.
Analysts think that Putin’s “special mode” may mean that more warheads become operational – for example, submarines are armed and begin leaving ports, or warheads are loaded onto bombers placed on airborne alert – and that the nuclear command system likely moves into a mode that will trigger the process for launches and actions – for example, if an incoming strike is detected – without the need for a direct command from the President.
Which warheads come online in this “special mode” – long-range warheads which can strike as far as the United States, or tactical warheads that can strike Ukraine and its neighbours – is not yet known.
Putin, in a 26 February speech, said that foreign intervention to repel the invasion of Ukraine, and any attack on Russia, would face “consequences… such as you have never seen”, invoking a nuclear shield for his attack on Ukraine.
But even if those conditions are not met, Putin could still launch a nuclear attack, including by accident, or through miscalculation.
It is imperative that a ceasefire is declared, and that a clear pathway to nuclear de-escalation, nuclear disarmament, and common security arrangements is established.
MAPW notes with special concern Russia’s use of indiscriminate and inhumane cluster munitions, and – as reported on 24 February by Human Rights Watch – the death of six fellow healthcare workers in Central City Hospital, Vuhledar. We express our sincere condolences to their families and colleagues, and our solidarity with fellow healthcare workers across Ukraine who continue to serve their people and profession under attack, and under the threat of nuclear war.