The threat of full scale war hangs over the people of eastern Ukraine and beyond.
As the situation unfolds, much is uncertain. But there are also tragic certainties if armed conflict eventuates.
Most of the suffering will be borne by civilians. Already, seven years of conflict in the Donbas region is reported to have caused over 3,300 civilian deaths, over 7,000 civilians injured, 1.5 million internally displaced, and 3.4 million people needing humanitarian assistance. Mines and explosive remnants of war (ERW) continue to cause civilian casualties.
Water, sanitation and hygiene needs are acute. Medical infrastructure and services have been badly affected: a 2019 assessment found that, “Healthcare is characterised by high prices, medicine shortages, and outdated equipment. This is particularly concerning given that 30 percent of the population in conflict-affected areas are elderly and suffer from chronic diseases.”
Propaganda – from all sides, and an integral part of warfare – will continue to cause chaos. Russian President Putin’s aggression is not the only part of the current complex and long-evolving story. A refusal on the part of Western leaders to acknowledge that all sides have legitimate security concerns has fed into a cycle of mutual mistrust and provocations.
The world’s war profiteers will be among the few winners.
Kevin Baron, the Executive Editor of DefenseOne, tweeted on 12 February: “Arms industry PR reps are sending us pitches boasting that their weapons systems may be used in the pending Russia-Ukraine war, if we’d like to speak to their CEOs about a feature article highlighting their company’s work.”
In the Ukraine, there are particular risks to be added to warfare’s inevitable human and environmental toll – nuclear weapons and nuclear power stations.
Russia and NATO nations between them possess most of the world’s 13,000 nuclear weapons, including all of the 2,000 weapons on high alert, which are ready to be launched at minutes’ notice. Russia, the US, France and the UK all possess nuclear weapons and have first strike policies. US nuclear weapons are stationed in Belgium, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and Turkey.
One miscalculation or poor judgement could lead to use of the weapons, with unprecedented human and environmental consequences.
To reduce this risk, it is critically important that nuclear weapons be taken off high alert. In the longer term, all the nations that possess these weapons – and their supporters such as Australia – must join global efforts for their abolition by signing and ratifying the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.
In addition to the region’s arsenals of weapons of mass destruction, Ukraine has 15 operating nuclear power reactors. Such reactors create vast amounts of highly radioactive spent fuel that is stored on site and vulnerable to attack (including cyber-attack). Such an event would have disastrous impacts over a huge region.
In the very short term, de-escalation of the current crisis is critically needed. A diplomatic path forward is still possible, such as military disengagement and a negotiated solution, based on the Minsk Accords, that takes into account the legitimate security interests of Russia and Ukraine.
And in the short, medium and long-term, we must continue to press for health to be prioritised over preparations for war.
This article first appeared in Croakey Health Media.