Published in the Canberra Times on 20 January, 2024
Australia has just taken another step, as part of the AUKUS agreement with the US and the UK, that
is leading us towards an event that should be unthinkable – involvement in a major war against
China.
On Tuesday 16 January, Acting Defence Minister Pat Conroy announced a $37 million contract with
Lockheed Martin Australia to begin the manufacturing in Australia in 2025 of GMLRS (Guided
Multiple Launch Rocket System) rockets, which have a range of around 70 kilometres. Australia will
also purchase the longer range (over 500 kilometres) Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM), and will join
the development program to extend their range to around 1000 kilometres in the future.
Lockheed Martin Australia’s parent company, Lockheed Martin, is the world’s biggest weapons
maker, 90% of its revenue coming from weapons sales. Like other weapons companies, Lockheed
Martin relies on wars and threats of wars for its existence. Its stocks rose almost immediately after
the October 7 attacks by Hamas on Israeli civilians, its fighter jets being among those that are
currently destroying Gaza. The company has profited greatly from the wars in Ukraine and
Afghanistan and elsewhere.
While Minister Conroy reassured us that this investment “is contributing to peace and stability in
the Indo-Pacific”, long range weapons for Australia are, on the contrary, likely to have significant
negative implications for peace (but very favourable impacts on Lockheed Martin’s bottom line). It
should be noted also that while $37 million is small fry in terms of weapons programs, the
government plans to spend $4.1 billion across the forward estimates on long range strike and
missile manufacturing.
The official narrative with new weapons program announcements has become very familiar – we
live in dangerous times, we face aggression from others and we have no choice but to deter attack
by being better armed than any adversary, especially China. The narrative comes to a full stop at
that point. There is no discussion as to what would happen if and when deterrence fails and war
breaks out. There is an unspoken assumption of victory for our side, despite the experiences of
Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq. Any discussion of the vast human and other costs is taboo; they are
for someone else to worry about, not the military strategists or the Lockheed Martin executives.
Many other questions are similarly unanswered..
Most basically, what is the exact purpose of the missiles – to target what, and where? Given
Australia’s increasingly close integration in training, hardware and doctrine with the US military, it
seems extremely likely that they will be forward deployed in coalition with US forces in a major
great-power war with China – a catastrophic situation that would serve no-one’s interests except
those of the war profiteers. Importantly also, what are Indonesia and other neighbours to think,
and will Indonesia or other regional nations plan to match Australia’s acquisition?
With long range missiles designed for offence rather than defence, Australia will in effect be
feeding a regional arms race, with all the risks and costs that that carries. Michael Klare, professor
emeritus of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College in the US, states in his own
country that the Pentagon’s drive for dominance in military technology “will consume an ever-
increasing share of this country’s wealth and scientific talent, while providing negligible
improvements in national security”. Australia faces the very same dangers.
Australians are being presented with a false choice. In August last year, ahead of the ALP National
Conference, Defence Minister Richard Marles and Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy both
sought to boost support for AUKUS, stating that the cost of deterrence was far less than that of
going to war, the obvious implication being that AUKUS will prevent war. We can have AUKUS or
war – take our pick.
It’s an appealing notion, but simplistic, deeply flawed and contrary to the lessons of history.
Frightening arrays of military technology have repeatedly failed to deter armed attacks.
Momentum towards war can become virtually unstoppable, as in 1914 when the tensions between
powerful opposing militaries descended into four years of industrialised slaughter following a single
assassination event.
Alfred W. McCoy, the Harrington professor of history at the University of Wisconsin-Madison,
reminded us just a year ago, in relation to tensions over Taiwan, of “a tried-and-true historical
lesson that bears repeating at this dangerous moment in history: when nations prepare for war,
they are far more likely to go to war.”
Australia needs to start extricating itself from our deep entanglement with our US ally, who talks
peace but is nearly always at war. With the distinct possibility of Donald Trump being the next US
president, serious thought should be given to the extent of our “shared values” with that nation.
Our overriding goal for the Indo-Pacific region should be the peaceful resolution of any crises and
the avoidance of warfare – which are no more than our obligations under the 1951 ANZUS Treaty
that unites Australia, New Zealand and the US. There is far more that Australia could be doing, such
as committing to defence rather than offence in our military policies, finding an independent voice
in foreign affairs matters, initiating arms control talks for the region, and, of course, giving priority
attention to our existential threats – nuclear weapons and climate change.
Rather than long-range missiles, we’d be better off with a long-range missive to the US telling them
that war against China is not an option for Australia.
Dr Sue Wareham
President, Medical Association for Prevention of War
19 January, 2024